Russia: A ‘Bastion’ of Support for the Beleaguered Al-Assad Government

By Nicholas A. Heras

The current Syrian government is facing severe international criticism and diplomatic isolation. One ally of Syria, however, the Russian Federation, stands firmly in support of the legitimacy of the Al-Assad government.

Russia’s December 1^st announcement — that it has completed delivery of advanced “Yakhont” surface-to-sea missiles to Syria — comes at time when the international community is applying intense pressure to isolate the Syrian government. The delivery of the missiles, which completes a 2007 arms agreement between the two countries, is part of a larger “Bastion” coastal defense system delivered by the Russians to the Syrians. Not to be limited to just the sale of weapons, on November 31, the Russian news agency Pravda reported that a Russian naval exercise including a Russian aircraft carrier and its supporting flotilla, planned in 2010, would continue from a Russian resupply base in the Syrian coastal city of Tartus.

This “business as usual” approach to relations with the Al-Assad government is putting the Russian government in a controversial position and possible diplomatic confrontation with the USA, its middle eastern allies’ (mainly Saudi Arabia), and the international community, as it poses a challenge to the latter’s policy aspirations vis-à-vis Syria.

Since the beginning of the demonstrations in March 2011, Al-Assad’s government has found few friends globally. In October, Russia vetoed a U.N. Resolution aiming at censuring and condemning the current Syrian government. Further upping the ante, on December 1^st, a report released by the U.N. describes Syria as being in a state of civil war, and reports that over 4,000 citizens have been killed in violence since March 2011. The U.N. Human Rights Council has subsequently voted to condemn the Syrian government and open an active investigation into the respect of human rights’ in Syria. Russia, once again, voted against this measure.

Russia’s base in Tartus — a Cold War relic that was used for refueling and resupplying ships originating from the Soviet Black Sea fleet — was an insignificant way-station for the new Russian Federation. In 2008, negotiations between the two countries took place, hence making the base permanent for the Russian fleet. With this recent up rise, this once sleepy, but strategic Russian outpost on the Mediterranean has been pushed into global focus.

The 2007 arms deal is only now a political issue because the U.S. government is against the continuation of the current regime in Syria. In the reality of the post March 2011 Syria, the Al-Assad government is a pariah government. It is, under U.S. policy, to be isolated diplomatically, and convinced of the inevitability of its demise. Syria’s reception of the Yakhont missiles is not a “game-changer” by any means. The likelihood of the Syrian government being able to resist a concerted, intense foreign military campaign against it is extremely small. Syrian Yakhont missiles may be useful in challenging Israeli naval actions, or for that matter Turkish naval actions considering that Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has called for the removal of the Al-Assad government, but they are not going to tip the balance of power in the Near East or in Syria’s conflicts with its neighbors. Russian Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles could make their way into Hezbollah’s armory through Syria, but these armaments would only bolster the Party of God and not give it an overwhelming deterrent capability against Israel in any future war between the two sides.

It is diplomacy more than war that is affected by Russia’s Yakhont missile sale to Syria. By completing the sale, Russia is making a powerful statement to the international community that the Al-Assad government still carries legitimacy. The presence of Russian military interests in Syria gives the Syrians a “Security Council Veto” on any resolution adopted against it, especially if the Assad government can show any type of systematic approach to trying to alleviate the conflict within its own borders.

With the return of US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford to Damascus, the United States is sending the signal that it will not invade Syria, or push for it to be weakened by a NATO bombing campaign à la Libya. Diplomacy and working with the Syrian Opposition (wherever and whoever it is) will be the strategy.